AFCON 2021 Preview.
Originally scheduled for June 2021 this 33rd edition was delayed, due to the local conditions and the ongoing pandemic, until January 2022.
Cameroon were to stage the event in 2019 but organisers CAF decided to put back their hosting until now.
This will be the first such tournament in which 24 teams will participate.
They will be divided into six groups of four teams playing in six stadiums spread across five cities.
Group A
Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, and Ethiopia.
Hosts Cameroon are one of the most successful AFCON countries, having won this title five times in the past.
But they go into the event FIFA ranked a relatively low 50th.
With a somewhat mixed recent record having lost to both Cape Verde and Burkina Faso in 2021.
Despite that the Indomitable Lions coach Toni Conceicao will be under severe local pressure to deliver.
However, he does not look to have an outstanding team.
Gone are the days of Eto’o, Song, Geremi, Milla and co.
Which should enhance the chances of qualification group winners Burkina Faso and 73rd ranked Cape Verde.
The Stallions have decent recent form including a couple of draws with one of the favourites, Algeria.
While the Blue Sharks have their usual range of Portuguese based players.
Lowest rated Ethiopia, with their mostly locally based lineup, will be hard-pressed to progress.
So Cameroon might not make the top spot in this group.
But they should get through as the leading four third-placed teams qualify for the Round of 16.
Group B
Senegal, Zimbabwe, Guinea, and Malawi.
Senegal have been the top-ranked African team for some time.
Hence they are considered the marginal favourites to win this competition.
Led by Liverpool star Sadio Mane the Teranga Lions can call on a strong lineup of European-based players.
From Chelsea’s highly-rated Edouard Mendy in goal, through the coveted Kalidou Koulibaly in defence, PSG’s midfielder Idrissa Gueye, to Ismaila Sarr and Mane up front they should comfortably qualify from this group.
And go on to challenge for the title.
Guinea might be their only real test in this group.
Although the Elephants, with Liverpool’s Naby Keita as their headliner, have had a mixed recent record.
Having lost twice to Morocco in World Cup qualifiers.
While Malawi and Zimbabwe (assuming they take part) are both lowly ranked and hard pushed to progress.
Should the Warriors be barred due to political factors 88th ranked Zambia will step in.
But this group looks set for Senegal and Guinea to qualify.
Group C
Morocco, Ghana, Gabon, and Comoros.
North Africans Morocco go into the tournament having recently taken part in the FIFA Arab Cup.
Where they only went out on penalties to the eventual winners, Algeria.
It was their only setback of 2021.
As the Atlas Lions have been consistently highly ranked and should qualify without too many problems.
They can field a solid range of European based players including the likes of Youssef En-Nesyri, Sofyan Amrabat, and PSG’s Achraf Hakimi.
Surprisingly they have only one AFCON title and though it's unlikely they will win this one they should go deep into the later stages.
Especially with the very experienced Bosnian Vahid Halilhodzic in charge.
Ghana do have the track record of wins although their last was in 1982.
Like some their squad looks weaker than in the past.
Though they still have the (ageing) Ayews, Jonathan Mensah, Arsenal’s Thomas Partey and some potential new stars getting into the quarter-finals might be their fortune.
Gabon have hosted AFCON a couple of times but only ever reached the quarter-finals.
Their recent performances have included a number of defeats and hence their ranking has dropped to 89th.
And with star man Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang unsettled at Arsenal, it doesn't augur well for The Panthers.
Lastly, Comoros join the party for the first time.
The interestingly nicknamed Coelacanths might harbour hopes of scraping into the knockout round.
With a squad mostly composed of French lower league players, they will probably focus on enjoying the experience.
And hope for a surprise result along the way.
Group D
Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan, and Guinea-Bissau.
Seven times champions Egypt go into their 25th AFCON (also a record) placed below Nigeria in the ratings but more favoured according to the betting.
The Pharaohs had a decent run in the Arab Cup before losing out to hosts Qatar on spot-kicks in the third-place play off.
Under Portuguese coach Carlos Quieroz they can field one of the leading players in the world in Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
However, apart from Salah and Trezeguet from Aston Villa and Elneny from Arsenal most of their lineup are likely to be selected from locally based sides.
Albeit powerhouses like Al Ahly and Zamalek.
36th ranked Nigeria will be expected to join Egypt in the next round.
Currently managed by their ex-player Augustine Eguavoen the Super Eagles have a reputation for underachievement.
Although they did rectify that by winning the AFCON crown in 2013.
They have talent spread around European sides with Iheanacho, Troost-Ekong and Onyeka in the Premier League.
As well as the striker Victor Oshimen at Napoli plus the evergreen Ahmed Musa, now in Turkey.
Travel issues notwithstanding the Nigerians will have plenty of support.
Both Guinea-Bissau and lowly rated Sudan will probably struggle to trouble the top two in this group.
Guinea-Bissau, with a mix of Portuguese and French located players, did beat Sudan in 2021 and should prove the third-best.
Group E
Algeria, Ivory Coast, Sierra Leone, and Equatorial Guinea.
Two of the favourites for AFCON meet in Group E.
Algeria go to Cameroon as the Arab Cup titleholders and will be expected by many to retain their crown.
Unbeaten throughout 2021 the Fennec Foxes can boast an array of talent.
Especially in attack with the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Islam Slimani, and the Qatari based Belailli and Bounedjah.
Having got the job done in 2019, though in a fairly dour fashion, Djamel Belmadi and his team will be confident.
The Elephants also have danger men upfront (e.g. Pepe, Zaha and Haller) plus plenty of strength in midfield (e.g. the coveted Franck Kessie) and defence, where their captain Serge Aurier is among the backline.
Having won AFCON twice the Ivorians should feature in the latter stages.
They will be coached by Frenchman Patrice Beaumelle, well known as Herve Renard’s assistant.
Renard managed Ivory Coast to their triumph in 2015 and Beaumelle will be looking to do the same in ‘22.
Equatorial Guinea have had their moments at this competition including achieving fourth place when hosting in 2015.
Though their mostly Spanish based squad will be hard-pressed to get anything from either Algeria or the Ivorians.
As will be the case with Sierra Leone.
Their Manchester-born coach John Keister can call on players from the lower reaches in England plus a variety of other countries.
Including the 37-year-old Helsinki based striker Kei Kamara.
Having played only four internationals in 2021 the Leone Stars will surely struggle.
Group F
Tunisia, Mali, Gambia, and Mauritania.
Under local coach Mondher Kebaier Tunisia will be seeking to build on their performance at the Arab Cup by going one better in Cameroon.
Their squad has plenty of experience, as well as some promising youngsters, led by striker Youssef Msakni.
They have been busy in 2021 including securing a place in the third round of World Cup qualifiers.
Very likely to progress they will be in the mix at the sharp end.
Mali, though they dropped down the rankings, have had an OK recent record.
Though they did lose to Tunisia in a friendly.
Coached by Mohamed Magassouba and with a mostly French domiciled team, they will expect to progress through a couple of knockout rounds.
With lots of AFCON experience, Mali will not be pushovers.
Mauritania, in their second AFCON, with few well-known names have been fairly busy in the past year.
Though they did suffer defeats to some of the tournament favourites.
It will be a major triumph if they progress out of the group.
As it would be for the debutants, Gambia.
Who are the lowest rated (150th) country at AFCON.
In topping a qualification group including Gabon, Angola, and DR Congo they gained almost legendary status.
Belgian coach Tom Saintfiet masterminded that achievement and he brings a great deal of relevant knowledge having also coached Zimbabwe and Togo.
They have a squad spread from around European leagues including Zurich striker Assan Ceesay.
Which might give them a better chance than some others.
Summary.
Though the group stages look fairly easy to predict it might not be the case in the knockout phase.
Where the matches become a lot more attritional and harder to forecast.
Though in a normal year you would expect the sharp end of the tournament to feature a battle between the North African heavyweights (Algeria, Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia) and the leading West Africans (Senegal, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and maybe the hosts)
But in the current pandemic you have to expect surprises given that teams might well have to contend with a number of absences.
So who knows how AFCON 2021 will play out?
Analysis - John Bethell